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☆ Yen gives up ground vs dollar following surge on suspected intervention
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

An attendant holds a sample of newly-designed Japanese 10,000 yen banknote, with three-dimensional holographic technology to prevent forgery, for a photograph at the National Printing Bureau Tokyo plant in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, June 28, 2023. The yen gave up ground in early trade on Thursday, reversing direction after a sudden surge against the dollar overnight that traders and analysts were quick to attribute to intervention by Japanese authorities. The dollar was 0.9% higher at 155.98 yen as of 0100 GMT, retracing about half of its late Wednesday surge from around 157.55 to exactly 153 over a period of about 30 minutes. "The 'sneak attack' element really is the MOF (Japan's Ministry of Finance) looking to punish speculators and send a warning about shorting the yen." That helped lift the dollar to a 34-year peak of 160.245 yen on Monday and also spurred a sharp reversal which official data suggested was due to Japanese intervention totalling about $35 billion.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Masato Kanda, Kyle Rodda, Sterling, Powell, Jack Mclntyre Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Capital.com, Japan's Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan, Brandywine Locations: National Printing Bureau Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Melbourne

REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. But Asian markets' first chance to react to that will be Thursday. But if the yuan is under pressure, it is nothing compared to the onslaught Japan's yen is facing. The currency and bond market reactions to the BOJ's policy tweak could not have been more different - the yen fell the most since April, while Japanese bond yields surged to a fresh decade-high. World, U.S. and Asian stocks all fell for a third month in a row, bond yields surged and financial conditions tightened significantly.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Jamie McGeever, China's Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, U.S . Federal, U.S, Treasury, PMI, Tuesday, China PMI, Indonesia CPI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, India, South Korea, Indonesia, Korean, Hong Kong, China

☆ Instant View: BOJ modifies bond yield control, re-defines long-term rate cap
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

But it's also likely the BOJ have their finger on the intervention button to cap any runaway rally on USD/JPY." Nevertheless, this is working in a way to increase the volatility of the global rates market. This means it will still have a certain distance until the BOJ exit from the negative rate policy." "A yield cap isn't a yield cap if you change it every time the market gets close." The Bank of Japan could lift the negative policy rate to zero over the coming year.

Persons: Kim Kyung, KYLE RODDA, MATT SIMPSON, JPY, it's, NOMURA, They've, TONY SYCAMORE, normalisation, TAKAYUKI MIYAJIMA, ROB CARNELL, they're, JEFF NG, TOM NASH, OMORI, SHOTARO KUGO, me, IZURU KATO, MARCEL THIELIANT, today's, FREDERIC NEUMANN, CHRISTOPHER WONG, BOJ's, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Bank of, Nikkei, SAXO, SONY, ING, UBS, CHIEF, DAIWA, OF, HSBC, Global, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bank of Japan, MELBOURNE, BRISBANE, SINGAPORE, TOKYO, U.S, SYDNEY, ASIA, PACIFIC, CHIEF JAPAN, stagflation, OF ASIA, YCC, HONG KONG

☆ Analysis: Yen comeback may be a longer waiting game
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

One result is an uneasy calm in spot and options markets for dollar/yen as traders give up waiting for the yen to bounce. Driven weaker by the widening gap between U.S. and Japanese interest rates, the yen has lost 13% on the dollar this year and at 150 is near the three-decade low of 151.94 that prompted government intervention a year ago. Market participants say what's changed is the expectation that Japan would be in the driver's seat for the yen this year. Yet together with the risk of intervention, it only seems to have stopped the yen from falling, rather than driving the sort of rally investors had been girding for at the outset of 2023. To be sure, Sachdev said interest in 'carry trades' - borrowing yen to sell for higher-interest paying currencies is waning, while investors have been keen for long exposure to yen assets.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Patrick Law, Masafumi Yamamoto, Yen, Shafali Sachdev, Sachdev, Tom Westbrook, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Federal, Pacific FX, Bank of America, Bank of International Settlements, Bank of, Mizuho Securities, U.S ., Swiss, Reuters, BNP, Wealth Management, Citi, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, U.S

☆ Japan likely won't intervene to reverse yen downtrend, ex-top currency diplomat says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-08 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

There is no set rule or shared agreement among G7 advanced nations on what kind of currency moves are defined as "excess volatility" that justify intervention, Shinohara said. "But usually, when you talk about excess volatility you have in mind a timeframe of several days or weeks," rather than several months, he said in an interview on Friday. The remarks contrast with those of incumbent top currency diplomat Masato Kanda, who said on Wednesday that steady yen falls over a protracted period could also warrant intervention. G7 and G20 major economies have a shared understanding that currency moves ought to reflect economic fundamentals, and that excess volatility was undesirable. In Japan, the finance ministry has jurisdiction over currency policy and decides whether and when to intervene.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Naoyuki Shinohara, Shinohara, Masato Kanda, Leika Kihara, Kim Coghill Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Reuters, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, Asia

☆ Morning Bid: Yen back near 150 as intervention chatter swirls
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Tokyo has not confirmed any such move to support the yen , with both Japan's finance minister and its top currency diplomat making no direct comment. Tokyo last intervened to buy yen in September and October last year, when the currency eventually slumped to a 32-year low of 151.94 per dollar. In Asian hours, the yen was back just below the 150 mark and last at 149.27 per dollar. They continue to sell bonds, sending yields higher with the 10-year Treasury yield at a fresh 16 year peak. The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield also clung to a 10-year high.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Ankur Banerjee, Kevin McCarthy, Edmund Klamann Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Ankur, Reuters, U.S . House, Ofcom, Labs, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, United States, U.S, Germany, France, Italy

☆ Yen intervention a hard sell even as 150 to the dollar 'red line' beckons
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

But, Japanese authorities could find propping up their currency both difficult to achieve and hard to justify. To make even a ripple in the $5 trillion currency market, the BOJ would need to draw down massive amounts of dollar reserves. Wakabayashi, like many other analysts and investors, considers the 150 yen per dollar level a red line for currency intervention, not least because of its significance as a symbol of climbing costs of living from imported food and fuel. INTERVENTION IMMINENTThe yen careened to a 32-year trough at 151.94 last October before being reined in by several bouts of heavy intervention, the first by Japanese authorities in a generation. Measures of expected market volatility remain subdued.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Bank of Japan's hesitancy, Kazuo Ueda, You've, they're, Bart Wakabayashi, Fumio Kishida, Shunichi Suzuki, Masayuki Kichikawa, Ray Attrill, Janet Yellen, Aninda Mitra, Mitra, Kevin Buckland, Alun John, Vidya Ranganathan, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan's, U.S . Federal Reserve, U.S, Treasury, Fed, State Street Bank, Trust, Finance, Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, Ministry of Finance, National Australia Bank, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Washington, Asia, London

☆ Dollar rides Treasury yields higher, yen battered
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar traded near a 10-month high against its major peers on Wednesday as Treasury yields stayed elevated on the prospect of higher-for-longer U.S. rates, while the yen stumbled towards a closely-watched intervention zone. "The U.S. dollar is stickier to the upside than the downside," said Tina Teng, market analyst at CMC Markets. The elevated U.S. yields have spelt trouble for the yen , which edged marginally higher to 149.01 per dollar, after having slipped to a 11-month low of 149.185 on Tuesday. The dollar/yen pair tends to be extremely sensitive to changes in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, particularly on the 10-year front. "Even if there were intervention, it won't drive dollar/yen down permanently unless bond yields start to retreat in earnest too."

Persons: Sterling, Tina Teng, Alvin Tan Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Treasury, U.S, CMC Markets, Fed, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, New Zealand Locations: National Printing Bureau Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Tuesday's

☆ Yen jumps on Ueda's remarks, dollar tentative ahead of U.S. inflation print
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A sheet of newly-designed Japanese 10,000 yen banknotes at the National Printing Bureau Tokyo plant in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, June 28, 2023. Ueda told the Yomiuri newspaper in an interview that the BOJ could have enough data by year-end to determine whether it can end negative rates. "Ueda is laying the foundations for an exit from negative interest rates, and he is giving plenty of notice," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. The dollar index , which capped last week with eight straight weeks of gains, its longest run since 2014, dipped slightly to 104.84. The Australian dollar , often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, rose 0.29% to $0.6397, while the New Zealand dollar edged 0.28% higher to $0.5900.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda stoked, Ueda, Matt Simpson, Alvin Tan, Index's Simpson Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, Yomiuri, Federal Reserve, British, Sterling, Fed, U.S, Treasury, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, New Zealand Locations: National Printing Bureau Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Asia, United States

☆ JPMorgan sees Japan's threshold for yen intervention at around 150 yen per dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Japan's threshold for currency market intervention on the yen is likely to be around 150 per dollar, investment bank JPMorgan's analysts said on Monday. "We think that the MoF (Ministry of Finance Japan) will not intervene in the FX market at around (the) 145 level. Our threshold level of JPY buying intervention is around 150," they said in a note. The yen was trading at 145.87 to the dollar on Monday, having been as weak as 146.56 last week. "Intervention needed is not as acute as in the September and October intervention cases," they said.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Marc Jones, Dhara Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Ministry of Finance Japan, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan

REUTERS/Kim Kyung-HoonSINGAPORE/LONDON, June 28 (Reuters) - The yen was under pressure against most other major currencies on Wednesday, even as Japanese authorities said they could intervene to prop it up, while the Australian dollar dropped after data showed inflation eased in May. The U.S. dollar rose to 144.26 yen on Wednesday, a fresh seven-month high, while the euro climbed to a 15-year high of 157.98 yen. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar fell to a three-week low of $0.6618 after the local consumer price inflation rate slowed to a 13-month low in May. It was last down 0.78% at $0.6634, and the neighbouring New Zealand dollar fell 1.17% to $0.6090, its biggest daily fall in a month. A measure of core inflation in Australia also cooled, in a sign interest rates might not have to rise again in July.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Masato Kanda, Lee Hardman, Jerome Powell, Andrew Bailey, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ankur Banerjee, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Jamie Freed, Emelia Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Hoon, U.S, MUFG, New Zealand, Traders, Bank's, U.S . Federal, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Hoon SINGAPORE, LONDON, Australia, Europe, U.S, Singapore

☆ US stock futures tip lower, yen stumbles and euro shines
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

“Maybe we’ll see some successes on inflation here and there, but it just won’t be enough,” said Rossiter. European inflation and rate hike hints from the Portugal meeting were also a focus for Tim Graf, head of EMEA macro strategy at State Street Global Advisors. “Recession probability models in the U.S. project a 55-70% to 65-70% probability we’ll get a recession in the next 12 months. Markets imply a 90% probability of an ECB rate hike to 3.75% in July and a peak around 4.0%. That underpinned the euro against the dollar at $1.095, while keeping it near a 15-year peak of 157.98 yen.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kim Kyung, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, ”, James Rossiter, Rossiter, Martins Kazaks, Tim Graf, they’re, we’ve, it’s, Graf, Masato Kanda, Brent Organizations: Federal, National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Nvidia, Wall Street Journal, Commerce Department, Treasury, European Central Bank, TD Securities, ECB, Street Global Advisors, U.S . Locations: China, Tokyo, Japan, Portugal, “, Europe, London, U.S

☆ Asia shares hesitant, yen slide stokes intervention risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Markets imply a 90% probability of a rate hike to 3.75% in July and a peak around 4.0%. The euro responded by climbing to $1.0957, while surging on the low-yielding yen to a 15-year peak of 157.97. The dollar rose to a near eight-month peak of 144.18 yen, before easing back to 143.87 as Japanese officials again protested the weakness in the yen. Yet, a rally in the yen looks unlikely while the Bank of Japan maintains its super-easy monetary policy. “So we now see a higher risk Japanese authorities will step into the market to prop up the JPY.”In commodities, gold steadied at $1,915 an ounce, after finding support at the recent three-month low of $1,909.99.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, ”, Goldman Sachs, “, Masato Kanda, Ueda’s, Carol Kong, Brent firmed Organizations: SYDNEY, National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, ANZ, Japan’s Nikkei, Nasdaq, Wall, Washington, Nvidia, Federal Reserve, CBA Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Portugal, U.S, Asia, Pacific, China, Europe

☆ Asia shares subdued, yen shunned as euro shines
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

“The data indicated a firmer pace of residential, inventory, and equipment investment in the second quarter,” wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs. Markets imply a 90% probability of an ECB rate hike to 3.75% in July and a peak around 4.0%. That underpinned the euro at $1.0950, while keeping it near a 15-year peak of 157.97 yen. The dollar had hit a near eight-month top of 144.18 yen, before easing back to 143.96 as Japanese officials again protested against the yen’s weakness. Yet, a rally in the yen looks unlikely while the Bank of Japan maintains its super-easy monetary policy.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, ”, Advantest, Goldman Sachs, “, Masato Kanda, Ueda’s, Carol Kong, Brent firmed Organizations: SYDNEY, National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, ANZ, Wall, Journal, Nvidia, Nikkei, Chip, Tokyo, Federal Reserve, CBA Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Portugal, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Beijing, Washington, China, Europe

☆ Japan convening panel on digital yen as BOJ pilot scheme gets underway
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Central banks around the world have scrambled to develop digital currencies to modernize financial systems and facilitate domestic and cross-border payments. But Japan remains undecided on whether to issue a central bank digital currency (CBDC), and the BOJ has said the pilot programme may last for several years. "We understand the BOJ's study is making a steady headway," a finance ministry official told reporters. "However, we have not at all decided on whether Japan will issue a CBDC." The BOJ and Financial Services Agency will attend the panel sessions as observers.

☆ IMF: BOJ should let long-term yields rise, be ready to raise rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Kim Kyung-HoonTOKYO, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan should let government bond yields move more flexibly and be ready to raise short-term interest rates swiftly if "significant" upside risks to inflation materialise, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday. "Given the two-sided risks to inflation, more flexibility in long-term yields would help to avoid abrupt changes later. This would help better manage inflation risks and also help address the side-effects of prolonged easing," the IMF said. EYING THE EXITThe IMF said the BOJ could also consider options such as targeting a shorter-term yield or the pace of its bond buying. The BOJ doubled its allowance band for the 10-year yield in December to 0.5% above or below zero.

☆ IMF urges BOJ to let long-term yields rise, be ready to raise rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

It's more to balance some of the impact on the real economy against the impact on financial markets," IMF Japan Mission Chief Ranil Salgado said on Thursday. "Given the two-sided risks to inflation, more flexibility in long-term yields would help to avoid abrupt changes later. This would help better manage inflation risks and also help address the side-effects of prolonged easing," the IMF said in a statement issued after the policy consultation. EYING THE EXITThe IMF said the BOJ could also consider options such as targeting a shorter-term yield or the pace of its bond buying. The BOJ surprised markets in December by doubling its allowance band for the 10-year yield to 0.5% above or below zero.

The draft annual tax-code revision seen by Reuters is expected to be approved by Kishida's cabinet on Friday. read moreUnder his flagship initiative aimed at redistributing income, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has sought to shift Japan's 2,000 trillion yen ($14.52 trillion) in household assets away from savings and into investment. As part of this initiative, the government will make permanent a programme that offers tax breaks for households' stock investments. "It will be implemented at "an appropriate time" from 2024 onwards," LDP tax panel head Yoichi Miyazawa told reporters on Thursday. Tobacco tax will be also raised in stages by 3 yen per cigarette, the draft showed.

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